APRES LE DELUGE

Are you telling me that Willard STAGED that disaster relief canned goods photo op?  God what won't he do?

 Oh right there's that ad that got him in trouble with both Chrysler and G.M. Egg on face, twice

You mean that fat guy praising the Prez left right and center, including on a tour of the afflicted area, was none other than NJ Gov. Chris Christie,  political surrogatenof Mitt Romney?  Yessir, the very one.

A long time ago, I said it was Romney's to lose, which he could.  I'm almost ready to say... he will.

The Final Week

Here we are, drawing to the close of this seemingly interminable campaign, both tense and dreadful, momentous and appalling. There's one week to go, heading for a photo finish.  After a storm pause, the contestants will claw for every vote.  The storm itself could be a factor.  Also, the Friday jobs number.  More likely, the result is already baked in the cake.  It still seems like Obama by a nose.  But nobody knows.

 FiveThirtyEight is still my bookie.

VOTE!

Figure out when you're going to vote.
Know where you vote.
Encourage your friends to vote.
Encourage your non-friends to vote.
Arrange to take someone to vote.
Join a phone bank. 
If you know anybody who lives in a swing state, call them, ask them to vote.
Then, vote.
Vote.
Vote.
Vote.

SPEAKING OF RAPE

What's this guy's name?  Richard Mourdock.  Candidate fot the Senate fromc   the State of Indiana.  Who says that pregnancies from rape are willed by God and must not be aborted.  Which is, by the way, the Pope's position.  And Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan's position. And maybe Mitt Romney's position.  It is true that Romney has stated he would permit exceptions to an abortion ban in cases of rape, incest or threats to the mother's health.  This is also the stance of the Mormon Church, although the Mormons insist that a raped woman should talk to her local bishop before deciding to go ahead with an abortion.  This seems to imply that a raped woman should seriously consider proceeding with the pregnancy.

Mourdock will be semi-famous from now through the weekend and then he'll be gone.  But he may have done Romney some crucial damage during his brief spin.  Mitt has made only one commercial for a senatorial candidate, and it's for this guy.  The soundbite works quite well in the countervailing Obama ad.  And the Sunday shows will link Mourdock to Ryan, to the other senatorial candidates who hold the same position, and to Mr. Romney.  Obama's running hard on Mourdock/Akin for as long as he can.  This should garner some women voters.

El Presidente?

Is it too late for Pablo Sandoval to run for president?  Maybe replace Biden.  Oh, the Kung Fu Panda is 26.  Too young.  Maybe we could change that rule.

ENDGAME

Two weeks from now, it'll be all over.

Simultaneously, the World Series will be played.

I'm rootig for Obama and the Tigers, both of whom are narrowly favored.

It's a matter of turnout (the Ground Game) .and pitching (the Bullpen).

I can live with the Giants winning,. I can't live with Romney winnng,

Meanwhile, Play Ball.

PEACENIK

Mitt was in deep withdrawal mode.  He dropped the Benghazi story.  He basically agreed about Libya, about Syria, about Egypt, about, China, about Russia, about Israel.  Romney tried to talk tough with nothing tough to say.

The president got off some good lines about horses and chariots. But it was mostly talking points.

It was kind of clear, however, that Mitt's avoidance strategy masked a sweeping ignorance of foreign policy. His backers' insistence that he looked presidential seemed to be a matter of his dressing nicely and insisting over and over that he'd be a strong leader.

Romney seems to be running on the notion that after he's elected he'll fill in the blanks.  Just take his word for it.

FOREIGN AFFAIR

I am not enthusiastic about Monday's foreign policy debate.  Obviously, we're all debated out.  And there was a fair amount of foreign in the last debate, especially the Benghazi thing, which will unfortunately come up again.

It's hard for me to believe that Romney can hold up for 90 minutes with his meager knowledge of  the world.  On the other hand, lots of Americans lap up chauvinism, "exceptionalism", anti-Muslimism, China bashing, Russia bashing, Greece bashing, protectionism.  I hate to remind you, or inforrm you, but back in the 60s, we used to talk about American Imperialism.  Mr. Romney, influenced by Mormonism, is still very much in the missionary position.

Obama is muchmore enlightened, but if he speaks from his internationalism, he becomes vulnerable to jingoism.  Americans have never, except for tourism, embraced the world.

I'm going to hate this one.

MITT'S WOMEN

I was trying to think of why any woman would vote for Mitt Romney. Firt, she might be really rich.  Second, she  might be mindlessly conservative. Third, she is a racist.  But I also think of a fourth category which of course overlaps the others.  This is a woman who, if her 15-year old-daughter were to get pregnant by some neighborhood rowdy, would persuade the girl to get an abortion, and who uses birth control herself but pretends she doesn't. This woman simply ignores what the candidates say about these matters. And votes for Mitt.

NARROW FOCUS

Somebody must be able to do something about the next debate.  It's supposed to be about only foreign policy, which, for 90 minutes, sounds terminally boring.  I think in such a format Obama will kick ass, and Romney will come across as a scary militaristic warmonger.  But I still think they should add to the menu.  Since the media know-it-alls seem to say that last night's contestants failed to lay out an agenda for the future, perhaps that could be the expansion topic.  The Next Four Years. Two segments after the foreign affairs stuff.

PRESIDENTIAL POWER

First of all, Obama looked great.  I want his tailor.  Romney, on the other hand, looked like a slightly rumpled salesman who can afford a good suit but doesn't know how to wear it. Then, the president moved back and forth across the stage gracefully and athletically whereas the challenger looked like he had a bad back.

But most of all, Barack Obama looed Presidential.  He was in command. 

Unbelievably, Obama won the Benghazi moment, with a stalwart assist from Candy Crowley, who caught Romney in a big mistake about what the President said the day after the attack.  That gave an opening to Obama to come on like the Commander-in-Chief.

Strangely, the 47% deal didn't come up until the end in response to a softball question.  Obama hit it way out of the park.

A clear victory for Obama,  It'll probably move the polls slightly back in his favor.  But Romney's litany of broken promises is still enough for his half of the population.  Turnout still counts.  it remains very close.

ROUND TWO

It goes without saying that President Obama has to call Romney on all his lies, on his flipflops and on his values (as witnessed by his tax shelters and tax avoidance gimmicks,  Also Bain Capital.  All this without appearing nasty.  A tricky proposition.  And he has to remain presidential.

Maybe most important of all, Obama must have an unassailable answer -- plus follow-ups -- to the Benghazi question. That will be hard since the administration is not on solid ground here.

The wild card in this debate is Candy Crowley. The debates commission picks the questions, but the moderator can winnow them down, and she alone determines the order in which they are asked. Crowley -- not the cleverest of newspeople -- will try for an attitude midway between Lehrer and Raddatz.  My fear is that she'll squelch some topic, like Bain or Mormonism.  She should be generous in her choices, but I am afraid she won't be

Just as it is assumed that the president will be far more aggressive and enthusiastic this time around, I'm guessing Mitt will be less assertive and not as confident,  But then I was completely wrong in my predictions of the first debate..

THE WARM-UP ACT

Charlie Pierce of Esquire.com had the best line,  What, he asked, is the difference between Paul Ryan and Sarah Palin? Answer?  Lipstick.

After the Etiquette Police had their fling, accusing Joe Biden of rudeness, lack of manners and worse.  The Joltin' Joe fan cliub chose to point out that the very good reason for laughing at Paul Ryan is because Paul Ryan is laughable.

Putting aside the question of who won and who lost, it is clear that Biden did an effective job coming in from the bullpen.  Now Barack Obama becomes the closer.  Candy Crowley, by the way, will be no match for Martha Raddatz.  And the final debate shouldn't be exclusively about foreign policy.

Obama has to keep up a steady diet of high hard ones.  Keep Romney off stride.  If necessary, give him some old-fashioned chin music.

Can you guess what I've got on TV as I write this?  Go Nats,

A LAUGHER

I thought Biden kicked ass, except for the laughing.  But the laughing was bad.  A little of it would have worked, especially since Ryan did his own fair share of smirking.  Twitterworld picked on Biden for the laughing.  They thought the veep was condescending, whiche he was, even though much of what pipsqueek Ryan said was, in fact, laughable.

Ryan had the better of the Libya issue, altthough he overextended himself by claiming that the Benghazi attack revealed the "unraveling of American foreign policy." That set Biden up for a strong showing on the rest of the foreign policy questions.  Martha Raddatz (who was otherwise terrific) kind of overdid Afganistan, but Biden handled it mostly well, by insisting over and over again that we are on a clear road to getting out (which is not entirely true).

I thought the Vice President did really well on Medicare and Social Security, and Ryan did poorly.  He came across as anti-Medicare, anti-Social Security.

Strangely the most vote-influencing subject was abortion, which came right at the end.  Romney's been trying to squirm-away from a clear anti-abortion.  Ryan was adamant, making it clear that legislatures and not "unelected judges" would decide the matter.  In other  words, repeal Roe v. Wade.

In my opinion, which Republicans will not accept, is that Ryan comes across as a lightweight.

So, attaboy Joe.  But cut the laughing.

GO JOE GO!

I'm sure the reason I'm nervous about Biden is because of what happened to Obama.  It just feels like the worm has turned, that Romney/Ryan is on a roll.

But Paul Ryan is really what Esquire's Charles Pierce has always said he is: a zombie eyed granny starver.  If only Joe Biden can bring out Ryan's inner Ayn Rand. Tyan hese hard right papists can be tough, but it's a type Joe Biden must have known well back in Scranton.

Joe Biden is a good guy.  Paul Ryan isn't.  That should count for something. I think.  I hope.  Maybe.

Biden should be good if he isn't infected by the contagion currently running through the Obama campaign.

ILL WINDS

I'm worried.  Very worried. 

I wasn't very active today,but I did catch a couple of items.  I saw a little bit of Wolf Blitzer's interview with Slippery Mitt.  Compared to The Blitzer, Jim Lehrer looked like Edward R. Murrow.  The Situation has to be the least stimulating Room in the house.  Wolf actually asked Romney if he found Rob Portman to be a tougher debater than President Obama.  I turned off the TV before the answer.

I also caught a brief snatch of Obama's speech at Ohio State. He was doing his Big Bird riff, which is by now a really tired joke.

Romney was once again whitewashing his tax "plan".  Vague, evasive. Smooth.

Obama was stumbling over his words.  Halting, rehearsed.  Stiff.

Now it's up to... Joe Biden?  Maybe.  But maybe not

Perhaps Bill Clinton can help. Somebody's gotta help.

TALKING FROM BEHIND

Mitt Romney likes to accuse President Obama of "leading from behind," intimating that Mitt would run the world more powerfully, wielding more force.  More macho.  Of course, Mitt offers no details as to how his Strongman pronouncements differ in any meaningfulway from the current administration policy.

Obama seems to have regained some of the points he lost after his abysmal debate showing.  Romney had gained stature and potential votes.  But then the job report kicked in, and a combination of liberal media comment and Obama campaign advertising reframed Romney's debate perormance as an exercise in serial lying.

Biden and Ryan seem to be seriously boning up for Thursday's debate.  I don't feel confident in either of them and,thus, am prepared to think the veep debate won't matter much.  But then I was sure President Obama would win the Denver debate.

MAD JACK

Jack Welch tweeted in support of Rupert Murdoch's appeal for Romney to clean out his staff.

Jack and Rupert -- the mogul tweeters.  And  today, renowned genius business man Jack Welch decided to tweet smoke on behalf of his pal Mitt Romney.  Mr. Welch has called Romney the most qualified person to run for president in his lifetime.  Jack is 78, so the men he thinks are outclassed by Mitt include Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower Nixon, Kennedy and Clinton. 

Now Genius Jack says that "Chicago" manipulated today's job report, which fell below 8 percent --very good news for the president, very bad news for Romney.  Jack knew the importance of the number, so he invented an alternate reality.

Jack always did have balls.  He rode the tech boom and a phenomenal market to huge profits, by changing GE from a manufacturing to a conglomerate colossus, buoyed by a bank -- a bank that collapsed in the financial meltdown.  Then he got out with a stupendous $900 million severance and a $10.5 million pension, along with courtside Knicks tickets, box seats for both the Yankees and the Red Sox (!), access to a corporate jet and an $80,000 New York apartment.  No wonder he backs the party of Big Business.

This was a very irresponsible act on Jack Welch's part.  And he thinks he can get away with it.  Because he believes he can get away with anything

DEBATE DEBACLE

Nobody doubts that Romney won.  Not one single pundit, reporter or commentator saw it any differently.

The explanations for Romney's victory were equally unanimous.  He was more energetic, more spirited, better prepared, more persuasive, more engaged, even funnier.  More in his body.

The harder question is, why did Obama do so poorly?  And here nobody has an answer.  Rachel Maddow reviewed the history, which shows that only one of seven incumbent presidents have won a first debate,  So maybe that has something to do with it.  Maybe President Obama, like his predecessors, held back, for fear of bullying his opponent.

This all began earlier, however. The president's DNC acceptance speech was also a dud.  It's almost as if  he's worn out.  Worn out by deadlock in the capital, worn out by an intractable economy, worn out by chaos abroad.  President Obama looks like he's ready to hang up his cleats.

This would be incredibly sad, because Mitt Romney will be a disaster if he becomes our next POTUS.  Supply side doesn't work.  Militarism doesn't work.  We need Barack Obama to wake up.

The First Debate

In one sense, neither guy won.  They stated their cases pretty clearly and straightforwardly.  Their differences were outlined carefully.  There were no zingers, no gotchas, no bombshells.  It was substantive and modest.

But of course, in another sense, Romney won.  He was extremely well prepared, ready for every question, enthusiastic.The president, on the other hand, was curiously lacking in passion, downbeat.

All the TV commentators agreed on Romney's success..  MSNBC was tougher on Obama than the others, and they really wanted him to win.

But, but... .Obama was good on medicare, pretty much hanging the voucher idea around Mitt's neck.  I also thought Obama did a good job of defending Obamacare.  He was especially effective at asserting the identical nature of Obamacare and Romneycare.

Also, every time Romney was challenged on specifics,  he failed.

So we'll see how it all plays out.  Meanwhile, no knockouts in this debate, but Mitt Romney wins by a decision.

Pre-Debate ll

To put it clearly:  I cannot abide the thought of Willard Mitt Romney becoming the next President of the United States.  So I am rooting for Barack Obama to score a clear win in tomorrow night's debate.  I am, therefore, not in the least objective when I say that I think he will.  The president may not be all that great (but he could be).  I just think Romney will screw up.  And at a key moment (or two), he will get goofy.

Pre-Debate l

Basically, whichever candidate you prefer now, you will still prefer tomorrow night. 

I guess the thing to watch is how the 47% plays.  We already know that Romney will assert that he cares about the 100%.  But of course that answer makes sense only against the background of the Boca Manifesto.

Romney will throw the kitchen sink at his opponent, but it's what the sink is full of that's the problem.  Dirty dishes and sudsy water.  The phantom tax plan, the empty attack on Obamacare, the saber rattling on the Middle East.  The president may be a lousy bowler, but he can knock those pins down.

Obama will want to sound confident and, above all, forward-looking.  That could be very effective if he doesn't sound too pedantic.

Since there was some grumbling about the choice of Jim Lehrer and since this is likely to be the public television veteran's last go-round, he may just go a little rogue.

Obama has been on a roll.  He figures to maintain his momentum on Wednesday night.  A nail in the coffin.